February 27-March 5 Financial Calendar: The two conferences hit heavy, Trump Congress sang

Huitong.com February 27th - This week, the financial market will usher in many events. In the international market, Trump New Deal, Brexit and French elections still dominate the market. Near the Fed resolution, Yellen and many Fed officials will also receive much attention. The perspective turned to China. This week, China's "two sessions" will attract the attention of many investors at home and abroad. From the past experience, the probability of A shares rising during the two sessions is higher than the probability of falling. In 2017, the "two sessions" and those stocks Worth paying attention?

I. International depth

Concern No. 1: Trump Congress Speech (February 28)

Although Trump promised to implement tax reform before he took office, there are still no more details to announce. Tax reform is one of Trump's core policies and an important means for Trump to boost the US economy. Trump's speech may have a greater impact on the US dollar and US stocks, thus affecting global financial markets.

On Tuesday (February 28), US President Trump will speak in Congress. This is the first time Trump has spoken in Congress since he took office, and is expected to attract investors' attention.

It is expected that Trump will have the following points in his speech:

1. Tax reform and border tax adjustment

Alan Gayle, head of asset management at RidgeWorth Investments, said that from Trump's speech on Tuesday, the market hopes to hear a specific tax reform plan, whether it is to gain the favor of the Republican Party, or to obtain the approval of the moderate Democratic Party.

The Trump tax reform mainly includes the following internalities:

A. Personal income tax: reduce tax rate, reduce tax rate, and broaden tax base

Reduce the personal income tax rate and tax rate, and reduce the current seven-level tax rate to three, 12%, 25% and 33% respectively.

B. Corporate income tax: lower tax rate, reduce credit, encourage infrastructure

In terms of corporate income tax: First, the corporate income tax rate is reduced from 35% to 15%. The second is to abolish the company's alternative minimum tax limit.

C, inheritance tax: completely canceled

Since the property subject to the estate tax is the wealth of the taxpayer after tax, there has been a suspicion of repeated taxation.

Trump's border tax adjustment policy is also one of the investors' concerns. Although Trump had previously dismissed the border tax, Trump made a clear statement last week to support the border tax adjustment.

Trump's adjustment of border taxes is intended to bring more jobs to the United States, but analysts say that Trump's move may have a strong response from US trading partners.

(The picture shows the rise and fall of the three major US stock indexes, in which the dark green is the S&P 500 index, the orange is the Nasdaq Composite Index, and the brown is the Dow Jones Industrial Average Price Index)

Although Trump has repeatedly spoken to the dollar, the net long position of the dollar has reversed from the week of January 10, 2017. Investors should also pay attention to the impact of Trump's speech on Mexican pesos, the renminbi and other currencies.

2. In addition to tax reform and border tax policies, investors should also pay attention to whether Trump will issue new views on “Obama Medicare”, relaxation of financial supervision, expansion of infrastructure spending, and immigration policy.

Concerned about No. 2: The spread of Brexit influences in Scotland (Scottish off-British, Northern Ireland Parliamentary Election (March 2))

Brexit is one of the hot spots that investors need to pay attention to in the near future. The Brexit negotiations will officially begin in March. Although Brexit has no greater follow-up impact on the financial market, the Brexit trend will not be so dull. end.

According to the news, while the British triggered Lisbon's Article 50 in March, the Scottish government is increasingly confident that it can win the referendum on independence from Britain and consider voting again next year to leave the UK.

Scotland held an independent referendum in 2014, but the British team lost by 10 percentage points. The official result of the Scottish independence referendum is: 44.7% for independence and 55.3% for opposition.

In addition, on Thursday (March 2), the British Northern Ireland will also hold parliamentary elections.

On February 16, the British Northern Ireland Minister James Broken Hill announced that Northern Ireland will hold parliamentary elections in advance to deal with the current split of the Northern Ireland ruling coalition.

The split of the Northern Ireland ruling coalition took place at a critical moment in the UK's Brexit process. British public opinion believes that the Northern Ireland parliamentary elections will directly affect the stability of the UK and affect the negotiations with the EU.

Concerned about No.3: Malta EU Trade Negotiations

On Thursday (March 2), European trade ministers will gather in Malta (Valletta) to discuss how to deal with the trade protection policy under Trump's administration.

Trump has previously made it clear that the United States will withdraw from the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement) and support border tax adjustments. In this context, the EU needs to address the issue of how to better participate in trade turmoil. In international trade.

At this meeting, the EU may discuss whether it needs to strengthen trade links with Asia and other emerging market countries.

Concerned about No. 4: Yellen (March 4) and the speech of the Fed officials

The Fed will announce the interest rate decision on March 16th, Beijing time, and this week will be the last week before the Fed’s buzzing period. Therefore, the speech of Fed officials and Fed Chair Yellen is the focus of investors this week. one.

The market currently believes that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates in March. The US federal funds rate futures show that the Federal Reserve’s probability of raising interest rates in March is 40%, but the probability of a rate hike in May has risen to 61.3%. Analysts said that the Fed is likely to suddenly raise interest rates in the May resolution without a press conference.

JPMorgan believes that the Fed may look for opportunities to act on the May resolution without the Fed chairman's press conference to convince the market to raise interest rates at every meeting.

Based on the Fed's management of market expectations, if the Fed wants to raise interest rates in May, investors will need to pay special attention to whether Yellen's speech will give some clues.

Concerned about No. 5: French election

The French general election will hold two rounds of voting. The first round took place on April 23, and the two leading candidates in this round will run on May 7. The results of recent polls show that National Front leader Le Pen is likely to win in the first round and the probability of being promoted to the second round is about 90%.

However, according to the agency, no matter who enters the second round, Fei Yong and Mark Hong are likely to beat Le Pen.

Although according to the current polls, Le Pen is unlikely to be elected president of France, but if the British referendum and the Trump election in the United States are used as a guide, there is nothing impossible. Le Pen's election will certainly shake the core of the EU, and thus become the biggest risk on the European political calendar.

Second, focus on domestic

The focus shifted to the domestic aspect. The fifth meeting of the 12th National Committee of the CPPCC and the fifth meeting of the 12th National People's Congress will be held in Beijing on March 3 and March 5, 2017 respectively. At that time, the Premier of the State Council will read the "2017 Government Work Report" to explain the focus of this year's economic work. Prior to this, the National Bureau of Statistics will also publish the 2016 Statistical Communiqué on National Economic and Social Development.

Concerned about No.1: China's "two sessions"

The agency expects that nine hot spots such as medical care, property market, taxation, children, education, sharing economy, supply-side reform, poverty alleviation and religion will be hot topics in 2017.

Regarding the 2017 Government Work Report, the agency believes that the report will mention the following six aspects:

1. Lower the growth target. It is expected that the economic growth target for this year will be adjusted from 6.5-7.0% in the previous year to around 6.5%.

2. Although the fiscal policy continues to maintain a positive attitude, it is expected that the budget deficit rate will remain at 3% this year, the same as the previous year, but the actual effect of fiscal policy margins tightened. It is estimated that the actual fiscal deficit rate (calculated by the fiscal revenue and expenditure data of the year) will be around 3.5% this year, which will be lower than last year's 3.8%.

3. It is expected that the monetary policy will change from a neutral loose last year to a neutral one this year.

4. The time window for the development concept to move from growth to growth has begun, and the supply-side reform status is prominent, but the pace is more stable.

5. Emphasize financial de-leverage, promote deficiencies, and financial regulation may make progress.

6. It is expected that this year's government work report will emphasize the “One Belt, One Road” strategy and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy, and both may make further progress this year.

Concerned about No. 2: China's stock market during the "two sessions"

Immediately approaching the "two sessions", in 2017, the work reports of the 30 provinces and municipalities across the country have more or less content deployment of the "One Belt, One Road" strategy. Transportation, capacity cooperation, ports, and tourism are all related high-frequency vocabulary. .

Haitong Securities believes that the theme of “One Belt, One Road” is expected to become a hot spot during the two sessions of the country and the focus of 2017. Specific stocks such as Sinosteel International, China Construction, Intercontinental Oil and Gas, Tongyuan Petroleum, Kaishan, China CRRC, Fiberhome Communications, ZTE, Middle mine resources, etc.

From the performance of A-shares before and after the two sessions in 2005-2015, the probability of a large market rise is higher than the probability of a decline. Therefore, A-share investors need to pay more attention during the period.

In addition, for the domestic stock market, foreign investment banks have gradually turned to be bullish.

Morgan Stanley said that at the end of 2017, the Shanghai stock index looked at 4,400 points, maintaining its forecast for the 2017 stock index on November 28 last year, which will increase by 35% from the current price of 3,253 points. The Hong Kong Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which has the fastest growth rate, has seen 11300 points at the end of the year, up from the previous target price of 10,200 points. This means that Morgan Stanley believes that the index will rise by 8.81% at today's closing price of 10418.66. In this way, the Shanghai index will rise far more than the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index this year.

(The picture shows the rise and fall of China's Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite Index, of which orange is China's Shanghai Composite Index)